Shut it Down!. (Any views expressed in the below are… | by Arthur Hayes | Jun, 2022

  1. Most tech VC shops are vehicles of expensive beta to the overall market when viewed against fee-adjusted performance. As a result, as inflation crushed bellwethers like Netflix because subscribers chose to eat rather than pay for the privilege of watching more mediocre Netflix originals, and some of the world’s most successful tech companies — such as Facebook — saw flat to negative user growth, the general funding and IPO environment deteriorated rapidly in 1Q 2022. Add rising nominal rates to the equation — which mathematically destroys value in long-duration assets like unprofitable tech companies — and you can imagine the pain felt by the Patagonia, khaki-wearing brosefs in Silicon Valley, Zhongguancun (中关村) Beijing, and Mayfair.
  2. The following theory is from one of the smartest crypto traders — and frankly, humans — I know. I haven’t done the work to verify his thesis, but logically, it makes sense. He postulates that the event that pricked the TerraUSD bubble originated from VC shops that needed to cash out of their LUNA positions with minimal market impact.
Data from Glassnode
Data from Glassnode
  1. Bitcoin / Ether move increasingly in a less correlated fashion vs. the Nasdaq 100.
  2. The current price levels are very close to the previous cycle’s all-time highs.
  3. The mainstream financial media gloats about how stupid and greedy plebs were who attained short-lived wealth investing in crypto.

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