Snippets. (Any views expressed in the below are… | by Arthur Hayes | Sep, 2022

Do you believe in decentralisation and/or censorship-resistant networks? I expect that most folks steeped in Lord Satoshi’s dogma — who likely make up the majority of my readers — would answer yes.

  • There is a way to slowly lose your ETH if < 33% of the network refuses to attest to blocks. Slowly losing your ETH means that a validator is punished by reducing the deposit on a node. Should the deposit drop below 16 ETH, that validation node is removed from the network. This capital becomes dead capital as for the foreseeable future you cannot unstake ETH.
  • There is a fast way to lose your ETH if > 33% of the network refuses to attest to blocks. The penalties get exponentially worse quickly such that opposing validators quickly fall below the 16 ETH threshold and are booted from the network.

“The bull market can only begin once the institutions come back” is a common trope I’ve been seeing a lot lately. The reality is that institutions are beta-chasing muppets– Nostra-muppets, rather than Nostradamus. They buy the top and sell the bottom. That is because of their compensation incentives.

Isn’t it sad that Bitcoin (and crypto in general) has become just a high-powered measure of USD liquidity? Isn’t it a bummer that crypto moves in lockstep with the Nasdaq 100 index, which is composed of large-cap American tech companies? I thought crypto was supposed to be the money of the people and negatively correlated with the TradFi system. Crypto has failed — sigh!

While the USD liquidity index explains very nicely the recent moves in Bitcoin, it doesn’t have much predictive power. If we want to forecast what might happen to Bitcoin’s price going forward, instead of the absolute value of the index, what we care about is the liquidity situation today relative to the situation in the recent past. This is the delta, change, or as I will refer to it, the “impulse” of the index.

The Fed has definitely not pivoted from their policy of quantitative tightening or short-term rates, as I suggested they might in a few of my past essays. However, I never said I believed the Fed would make the pivot before the midterm elections. I still have time!

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